The Off-Season: 

Now is the time to hunt as prices start to level off and low rates continue to fuel the housing market. 

We were coming off a 4 month sales dip starting in June, then the market bounced back in September when California home sales posted the large monthly increase in over a year and then here comes October. October marks a new month and the start of a new quarter as we head into the traditionally slow holiday period also known as the “off-season.”  Even though it’s the start of off-season, we’re still above pre-pandemic levels even as sales dipped from 2020.

State-wide home sales: In October, existing, single-family home sales dipped .9% to 434,170 from 438,190 in September and down 10.4% from October 2020. Year to date, California home sales are still up 13.4%.  

State-wide median prices: For the first time in 7 months, median home prices dipped below the $800k threshold to $798,440 – down 1.3% from September’s $808,890 but still up 12.3% from October 2020. This was the second price decline in a row, and on par with the 1.5% price drop typically seen between September and October – something that has happened for the past 42 years!

What’s happening with inventory? The unsold inventory index indicates the number of months it would take to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current rate of sales. For the first time in four months, the UII dropped to 1.8 months, compared to 1.9 months in September and still below last year’s levels of 2 months.

What’s happening with interest rates? According to Freddie Mac - In October the 30 year fixed averaged 3.07%, up from 2.83% year over year and the five-year adjustable rate averaged 2.54% down from 2.89% year-over-year.

“Despite a slowdown in sales from last year's robust fall season, the California housing market continues to stabilize and is outperforming the pre-pandemic levels observed in 2017, 2018, and 2019."

-C.A.R.  Vice President and Chief Economist, Jordan Levine

What’s happening in Los Angeles County?

For single family homes:

• 4,825 homes hit the market in October, down 2.7% year over year and down 8.4% from September
• 4,364 homes were sold in October, down 6.79% year over year and down 4.42 % from September.
• Median listing prices (the point at which one half the homes list for more and one half list for less) continued to stay above $800,000 in October at $849,900, down 1.07% from September’s median listing price of $859,000 and up 6.25% from October 2020.
• Median Selling Price (the point at which one half the homes sell for more and one half sell for less) dropped to $875,000, down 1.71% from September’s median selling price of $890,000 and a 6% increase from October 2020.
• There's the list price (what the seller hopes to get) and the sale price (what they actually get). The list/sales price ratio continues to stay above 100% - at 103% in October. 
• For the first time in months, median days on market in October went up from last year: 13 days on market, up 18% year over year while average days on market was down 11% year over year over year to 24 days.

For condominiums:

• 1,827 new condos hit the market in October, down 11.55% from September and up 1% year over year.
• 1,721 condos were sold in October, down 1.39% from September and up .29% year over year.
• Median listing prices (the point at which one half the condos list for more and one half list for less) dropped 1.64% from September to $609k, but up 11.74% year over year.
• Median Selling Price (the point at which one half the homes sell for more and one half sell for less) decreased slightly to $629k from $630k in September, but up 14.36% from September 2020.
• There's the list price (what the seller hopes to get) and the sale price (what they actually get). In October, we’re still above the 100% list/sales price ratio with a 101.9% list/sell price ratio.
• Shrinking inventory didn’t stop potential condo buyers from competing for condos. Both median and average days on market in September dropped from last year: 14 median days on market, down 12.5% year over year, and 26 average days on market, down 16% year over year.  

What this means for you:

Even though the market is starting to soften as we enter the traditional off-season, I have always had my BEST MONTHS during this off-season. Many buyers and sellers go into holiday mode and they are simply not thinking about buying or selling a home…which is exactly why I advise my clients to strike.

So for anyone who pushed the pause button earlier this year, now is the time to hunt especially as interest rates remain low. If you need to buy or sell your home, let data be your guide, but let your unique circumstances be the deciding factor.

Here is the Los Angeles Real Estate Market Report for Single Family Residences and Condominiums based on October housing data in Los Angeles. Until next month….