Uncertainty Looms as Mortgage Rates and Home Prices Remain High

Many potential homebuyers are deterred by consistently high mortgage rates and home prices, as concerns about inflation, volatility in the banking sector, slowing economic growth, and an imminent recession loom. 

In the meantime, on May 3, the Federal Reserve decided to increase its key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, aligning with the predictions of most housing experts. The Fed also indicated that it might halt further rate increases if inflation continues to decline. A hike in the Fed's interest rate indirectly affects long-term home loans, such as 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.

Interest rates roughly doubled in 2022, But how does the rest of 2023 look? 

Will the cost of financing a home be coming down this year?

Some say no. “Continued inflation, overall higher interest rates, a potential recession and geopolitical tensions will force 30-year and 15-year mortgage rates up throughout 2023, and will bring the two rates closer together as short-term risks rise,” says Dennis Shirshikov of real estate website Awning.com. He foresees the 30-year and 15-year benchmark mortgage loans averaging 8.75 percent and 8.25 percent, respectively, across 2023. Robert Johnson, a professor of finance at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business, shares some of those sentiments. “By the end of 2023, financial market participants expect that the Fed will have increased the target Fed funds rate by 175 to 200 basis points from current levels,” Johnson says. “That would translate into 30-year and 15-year mortgage rates at roughly 8.50 and 7.70 percent.”

How will higher mortgage rates affect the over market for buyers looking to get into a home?

Will homes continue to remain financially out of reach for many purchasers next year? Experts say hopeful buyers should not expect today’s high prices to plummet anytime soon. “Home prices won’t drop in 2023, I expect pricing to be relatively flat.” Says, The National Association of Realtors’ Nadia Evangelou, senior economist. 

“Inventory is approximately 46% below the historical average dating back to 1999,” says Jack Macdowell, chief investment officer and co-founder at Palisades Group.

These circumstances have put a strain on the housing market, which remains a mixed bag  Most experts are in consensus that, in the big picture, 2023 will be something of a transitional year, characterized by uncertainty. 

And now for the latest data on Los Angeles County real estate trends:

Single family homes  I Los Angeles County I April 2023

New Listings: 3,415 (Down 36.78% year over year)

Homes Sold: 2,647 (Down 36.46% year over year)

Median List Price: $875,000 (Down 5.41% year over year)

Median Sales Price: $880,000 (Down 12% year over year)

Median Days on Market: 16 (Up 60% year over year)

Average List Price: $1,257,860 (DOWN 9.84% year over year)

Average Sales Price: $1,256,236 (DOWN 14.01% year over year)

Average Days on Market: 36 (Up 71.43% year over year)

List/Sell Price Ratio: 100.9% (Down 5.24% year over year)

Condo homes  I Los Angeles County I April 2023

New Listings: 1,258 (Down 36.97% year over year)

Homes Sold: 940 (Down 43.54% year over year)

Median List Price: $663,495 (Up .54% year over year)

Median Sales Price: $660,000 (Down 5.71% year over year)

Median Days on Market: 16 (Up 60% year over year)

Average List Price:  $812,386 (DOWN 2.3% year over year)

Average Sales Price: $806,289 (DOWN 6.83% year over year)

Average Days on Market: 38 (Up 72.73% year over year)

List/Sell Price Ratio: 100.1 (Down 4.61% year over year)