Waiting For the Ballot to Drop

Prices Dip, Sales Stall, But Watch for a Post-Election Surge

September brought some interesting twists to California’s real estate market. The statewide median home price dipped to $868,150, down 2.3% from August. But here’s the kicker: it’s still up 2.9% year-over-year.  Now, let’s talk sales. Year-to-date statewide home sales barely inched up 0.9%. It’s like we’re jogging in place here. Despite interest rates hitting their lowest since spring, September sales were the lowest we’ve seen in nine months!

Why, you ask? Well, election season is just around the corner—November 5th, mark your calendar—and it’s shaking things up. We’re seeing fewer mortgage applications, lower rates, and slower sales as folks hit pause before casting their votes. If you remember our last market report, we predicted this little cool-off before the election. It’s a pattern: home sales take a quick nap, then boom, they wake up swinging after the ballots are counted.

Check this: after 9 of the last 11 elections, home sales skyrocketed. New home prices? They spiked after 10 of the last 11. So, if you’re thinking of buying or selling, strap in. The next few weeks could see some serious market moves.

“The inventory of homes for sale has steadily improved in recent months as the market moves into the typical off-peak homebuying season…With home prices likely to moderate further in the coming months, the fourth quarter could offer an opportunity for potential buyers who have been waiting to re-enter the market, especially as interest rates gradually return to historical averages.” said C.A.R. President Melanie Barker, a Yosemite REALTOR

She’s hinting that home prices MIGHT chill out more in the off-season, making Q4 prime time for buyers who’ve been sitting on the sidelines. Plus, interest rates are expected to gradually return to normal.   Now, September’s price drop may feel like a red flag, but we’re still 2.9% up from last year. We’re riding 15 straight months of year-over-year price growth. Sure, we might see a little softening through the holidays, but expect those year-over-year gains to hold steady for the rest of 2024.

“Economic uncertainty and hopes for lower interest rates may have caused many buyers to hold off on a home purchase … As a result, home sales declined for the second consecutive month, reaching their lowest level this year. However, the recent rebound in bond yields is a reminder that rates will continue to fluctuate, and waiting may not be the best strategy when it comes to homebuying.” said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine.

Economic uncertainty and hopes for lower rates are keeping buyers in wait-and-see mode, don’t wait too long. Bond yields have bounced, and that means mortgage rates could follow suit. Trying to time the market could leave you playing catch-up.

So, whether you’re looking to make a move now or after Election Day, keep an eye on the shifts, but don’t get left holding the bag,  The market doesn’t wait for anyone.

And now for the latest data on Los Angeles County real estate trends:

Single family homes  |  Los Angeles County | September 2024

New Listings: 4,301 (Up 12.33% year over year)

Homes Sold: 2,660 (Up .42% year over year)

Median List Price: $956,500 (Up 6.28% year over year)

Median Sales Price: $963,500 (Up 2.5% year over year)

Median Days on Market:  19 (Up 26.67% year over year)

Average List Price: $1,464,620 (Up 7.74% year over year)

Average Sales Price: $1,438,487 (Up 5.88% year over year)

Average Days on Market: 32 (Up 14.29% year over year)

List/Sell Price Ratio: 100.7% (Down .95% year over year)

Condo homes  | Los Angeles County | September  2024

New Listings: 1,721 (Up 16.44% year over year)

Homes Sold: 1,027 (Up 9.84% year over year)

Median List Price: $688,000 (Up 1.18% year over year)

Median Sales Price: $685,000 (Up 0% year over year)

Median Days on Market: 21 (Up 23.53% year over year)

Average List Price:  $833,317 (Up 2.94% year over year)

Average Sales Price: $828,932 (Up 2.38% year over year)

Average Days on Market: 34 (Up 9.68% year over year)

List/Sell Price Ratio: 100% (Down .78% year over year)